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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.